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14 May 2025,09:35

Daily Market Analysis

Aussie Rallies to 2025 Highs on U.S.-China Trade Truce, Upbeat Wage Data

14 May 2025, 09:35

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Key Takeaways:

*U.S.-China positive trade development boosts the Australian dollar’s strength.

*upbeat Australia wage data bolster Aussie dollar strength.

Market Summary:

The Australian dollar surged to its strongest level of 2025 following a breakthrough in U.S.-China trade talks and stronger-than-expected domestic wage growth. After a week-long negotiation in Switzerland, both countries agreed to a 90-day tariff truce, with the U.S. dropping 145% in tariffs on Chinese goods and China reciprocating by lifting 125% in tariffs on U.S. imports.

The de-escalation of trade tensions significantly improved global risk sentiment and helped recalibrate economic growth forecasts for both nations—providing a tailwind for the Aussie, which is often viewed as a liquid proxy for China’s economic health.

Adding to the bullish momentum, Australia’s latest wage price index rose 0.9% in the Sydney session, surpassing the previous 0.7% print. The stronger wage growth suggests underlying strength in the labor market and could increase pressure on the RBA to stay hawkish, further supporting the local currency.

Technical Analysis:

GBPAUD, H4

The Australian dollar continued to strengthen against the British pound, with the latter showing little momentum amid a lack of fresh catalysts. The GBP/AUD pair remains in a defined lower-high price pattern and is now testing a key support zone near the 2.0500 mark. A decisive break below this level would push the pair to fresh monthly lows, reinforcing the bearish outlook.

From a technical perspective, momentum indicators are sending mixed signals. The RSI remains subdued below the 50 threshold, reflecting limited buying interest, while the MACD is hovering near the zero line, pointing to a neutral bias in the near term.

Unless the Pound finds support from incoming UK data or a shift in sentiment, the pair may continue to edge lower with downside risks prevailing.

Resistance Levels: 2.0620, 2.0915

Support Levels: 2.0304, 2.0045

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