Fed Rate Watch: The Week That Moves Markets!

Tuesday, 17 September 2024, 08:00 – US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)

The latest U.S. Core Retail Sales for July reported a 0.4% increase, surpassing the market’s forecast of 0.1%. This better-than-expected outcome was fueled by strong consumer spending, notably in online shopping and restaurant sales, despite ongoing concerns about high inflation. Based on recent trends, the upcoming report is anticipated to show moderate growth, as retail sales, including the core metric, have demonstrated resilience.

Wednesday, 18 September 2024, 20:00 – Fed Interest Rate Decision

In July, the Federal Reserve decided to keep its benchmark interest rate steady at 5.5%, noting that while inflation has moderated over the past year, it is still somewhat high. However, expectations are strong that the Fed will announce a 25-basis point rate cut at its next policy meeting on September 18. This anticipated move is largely due to cooling inflation, with recent data indicating that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.5% year-on-year in August. Despite a somewhat elevated core inflation rate which excludes food and energy, markets expect the Fed to ease monetary policy in response to the overall reduction in inflationary pressures.

Thursday, 19 September 2024, 13:00 – BoE Interest Rate Decision (YoY) (Aug)

The Bank of England (BoE) made its first interest rate cut in over four years on August 1, 2024. The decision, passed by a narrow 5-4 vote, reduced rates by 25 basis points from the previous rate of 5.25% to 5%. Governor Andrew Bailey emphasized the need to keep inflation low and cautioned against rapid or excessive rate cuts. Although recent UK data supports the possibility of another rate cut, the upcoming decision is expected to maintain current rates, as many surveys and economists believe another cut might be premature given the recent adjustment.

Friday, 20 September 2024, 05:00 – BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Sep)

On July 31, 2024, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) unexpectedly raised its key interest rate to 0.25%, up from the previous range of 0 to 0.1% which surprised many investors and analysts. The rate hike addresses inflation concerns and aims to stabilize the economy. Governor Kazuo Ueda noted that while rates remain relatively low, further increases could be needed if inflation continues. Additionally, the BoJ hinted at reducing its bond-buying program, indicating a gradual shift away from its ultra-loose monetary policy. However, given recent economic data showing slower growth than anticipated, the BoJ is likely to approach future interest rate decisions cautiously and will not provide any surprise changes.