Gold Hits Record as Mounting Stagflation Fears and Trade War

Market Summary

Global markets remained under pressure as escalating trade tensions between the US and China fueled investor anxiety, sending gold prices to fresh record highs. The US recently imposed a steep 145% tariff on Chinese imports, with limited exemptions for smartphones, while China retaliated with a 125% tariff on American goods. The White House further warned that total levies on some Chinese products could soar to 245% once existing duties are included. This intensifying trade war has raised concerns about stagflation, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighting that tariffs are likely to drive inflation higher, yet current economic conditions do not justify a rate cut.

US equity markets fell sharply, reflecting fragile investor sentiment amid mounting fears of slowing economic growth and rising input costs. With the Fed maintaining a cautious stance and signaling no immediate plans for rate cuts, businesses may continue to struggle under the weight of higher material and borrowing costs. As company profit margins come under pressure, the outlook for US equities remains clouded by uncertainty, with stagflation risks denting investor confidence.

Meanwhile, the Japanese yen edged higher after constructive trade talks between the US and Japan, with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba emphasizing Japan’s prioritization of negotiations—an early sign of potential progress amid global trade friction.

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Current rate hike bets on 7th May Fed interest rate decision: 

Source: CME Fedwatch Tool

0 bps (81.6%) VS -25 bps (18.4%)

Market Overview

Economic Calendar

(MT4 System Time)

Source: MQL5 

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Market Movements

DOLLAR_INDX, H4

The Dollar Index remained flat, continuing to consolidate in a narrow range amid mixed market sentiment. On one hand, the Fed’s reluctance to cut rates and concerns over inflation support the dollar. On the other, fears of economic slowdown and prolonged trade tensions cap its upside. Powell’s warning about stagflation risk and tariff-driven inflation has complicated the Fed’s policy path, adding uncertainty to dollar direction in the medium term.

The Dollar Index is trading lower while currently testing the support level. However, MACD has illustrated diminishing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 29, suggesting the index might enter oversold territory. 

Resistance level: 101.95, 104.65

Support level: 99.25, 97.80

XAU/USD, H4

Gold prices hit a new record high, driven by escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and rising stagflation fears. President Trump imposed a fresh 145% tariff on Chinese goods, with some exemptions for smartphones, while China retaliated with tariffs of up to 125%. The White House noted total levies could reach 245% on select items. Fed Chair Jerome Powell added to market anxiety, warning that tariffs could fuel inflation but reiterated that cutting rates now may worsen stagflation. Amid this uncertainty, investors are flocking to gold as a safe-haven, seeking protection from inflation and economic slowdowns.

Gold prices are trading higher after successfully breakout above the previous resistance level. However, MACD has illustrated diminishing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 75, suggesting the commodity might enter overbought territory. 

Resistance level:  3380.00, 3490.00

Support level: 3290.00, 3220.00

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GBP/USD，H4

The pound edged lower following weaker-than-expected CPI data, with headline UK inflation rising only 2.6% YoY (vs. 2.7% expected). The data reignited concerns over the UK’s economic health amid ongoing global trade uncertainties. As inflation softens and broader growth risks increase, investor confidence in the pound remains shaky, especially without clearer direction from the Bank of England.

GBP/USD is trading lower while currently testing the support level. MACD has illustrated increasing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 60, suggesting the pair might extend its losses after breakout since the RSI retreated from overbought territory. 

Resistance level:  1.3315, 1.3425

Support level: 1.3195, 1.3085

USD/CAD , H4

The loonie firmed modestly after the Bank of Canada held interest rates steady at 2.75%, in line with expectations. This marks the BoC’s first pause after seven consecutive cuts, reflecting a cautious approach. The central bank emphasized the need for more data to assess the full impact of global tariffs and remains ready to act if inflation moves beyond control. For now, its neutral tone offered some short-term support for CAD.

USD/CAD is trading lower while currently testing the support level. However, MACD has illustrated diminishing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 34, suggesting the pair might enter oversold territory. 

Resistance level: 1.4140, 1.4440

Support level: 1.3855, 1.3600

Dow Jones, H4: 

The U.S. equity market came under pressure, posting a steep decline as investors digested both rising trade risks and a dimming economic outlook. With the Fed holding back on rate cuts, and inflationary pressures mounting, fears of stagflation are building. Corporate profit margins are under threat, weighed down by higher input costs and elevated borrowing rates, reducing investor appetite for equities in the near term.

The Dow is trading lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level. MACD has illustrated diminishing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 42, suggesting the dow might extend its losses since the RSI stays below the midline. 

Resistance level: 40020.00, 41735.00

Support level: 38040.00, 36305.00

USD/JPY, H4: 

The Japanese yen gained modestly, buoyed by its safe-haven status and optimism over U.S.-Japan trade negotiations. Japan’s PM Shigeru Ishiba said talks were “constructive,” and President Trump confirmed “big progress” in discussions with a Japanese delegation. Japan is among the first to enter formal negotiations, marking an early test of Washington’s willingness to ease tariffs. Despite ongoing global uncertainty, BOJ’s longer-term hawkish tone continues to offer underlying support for the yen.

USD/JPY is trading lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level. However, MACD has illustrated diminishing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 33, suggesting the pair might enter oversold territory. 

Resistance level: 144.15, 147.40

Support level: 140.65, 137.45

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Crude Oil, H4

Crude oil prices rebounded slightly, helped by China’s better-than-expected GDP growth of 5.4% (vs. 5.2% forecast), signaling resilience in global demand. However, gains were limited by a bearish U.S. inventory report, with crude stocks rising by 0.515M barrels—more than the expected 0.400M—according to EIA data. While supply-side concerns persist, the broader economic uncertainty tied to trade wars remains a drag on oil’s upside potential.

Oil prices are trading higher while currently testing the resistance level. MACD has illustrated increasing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 56, suggesting the commodity might extend its gains after breakout since the RSI stays above the midline. 

Resistance level: 62.50, 64.45

Support level: 59.75, 57.00

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