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市场须知 多位美联储官员表示，今年需要进一步加息，以使通胀率回到2%的目标水平。尽管美联储态度强硬，但市场倾向于认为最新经济数据表明美国通胀正在放缓，美联储货币紧缩周期已接近尾声。结果，美元价值和美国国债收益率一直在下跌，而油价则因美联储将摆脱高利率环境的预期而受到提振。与此同时，投资者热切期待明天（7 月 8 日）公布的美国消费者价格指数（CPI），以衡量美联储未来的货币政策决策。 市场看点 当前对 7 月 26 日美联储利率决定的加息押注： Source: CME Fedwatch Tool 0个基点 (11%) 对比 25 个基点 (89%) 市场概括 财经日历 市场走势 美元指数， H4 在美联储官员强调有必要进一步加息以应对通胀、同时暗示当前紧缩周期即将结束后，美元大幅下跌。美联储负责监管的副主席巴尔(Michael Barr)表示，美联储可能在今年两次加息后，未来的紧缩货币政策将会结束。然而，货币政策仍未确定，因此投资者必须持续关注未来的经济发展以获得更准确的交易信号。 美元指数目前正在测试支撑位。然而，MACD指标显示看跌势头减弱，而相对强弱指数在31，暗示该指数可能进入超卖区域。 阻力位：102.50，103.35 支撑位：101.95，101.05 黄金/美元，H1 黄金价格在关键的1930美元阻力位附近停滞不前，投资者等待关键的经济数据，特别是6月份的消费者价格指数(CPI)数据。对月度物价压力上升的预期加剧了对通胀的担忧，增加了美联储(Federal Reserve)在即将召开的7月货币政策会议上加息的可能性。92%的投资者预计会有这样的举动，市场波动是意料之中的，因此交易要谨慎。 黄金价格目前在阻力位附近持平。MACD指标显示看涨势头增强，而相对强弱指数在56，暗示该商品在成功突破后可能会走高，因为相对强弱指数保持在中线上方。 阻力位：1930.00，1950.00 支撑位：1910.00，1895.00 欧元/美元， H4 明天美国消费者物价指数 (CPI) 公布前，美元进一步走软，汇价自去年 5 月以来再次触及 1.100 点。尽管几位美联储官员口气强硬地敦促加息，以将通胀率降至央行支持的水平，但市场正在根据经济数据做出相应反应。 CPI已较峰值减半，而就业数据显示劳动力市场正在宽松，这导致市场认为美联储的货币紧缩周期已接近结束。投资者密切关注明天公布的CPI，以衡量美联储下一步的政策举措。 欧元/美元交投强劲，突破心理阻力位 1.100。 RSI 继续上升并接近超买区域，而 MACD …
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